In a Quinnipiac University poll last fall, two-thirds of Republicans said they don’t view the riot at the Capitol as an attack on government, and 77 percent of Republicans say Trump bears no responsibility or not much responsibility for the storming of the Capitol on Jan. But by September, that percentage had fallen more than 20 percentage points, to 57 percent, and a majority of Republicans say too much attention is paid to the riot.Īnd among Republicans, the rear view of the riot has only gotten better for Trump. In March, 79 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said it was important to prosecute people who rioted at the Capitol, according to a Pew Research Center poll. But evidence is everywhere that no longer is the case. He continued: “It’s Biden’s bad year that has literally re-energized the Trump base.”Įarly last year, Republicans’ enthusiasm for Trump appeared at least tempered by the events of Jan. “What has helped President Trump more than anything is President Biden,” said Randy Evans, a Georgia lawyer who served as Trump’s ambassador to Luxembourg. Trump’s favorability rating, at about 43 percent, is not strong in normal political terms - but it’s nearly identical to Biden’s job approval rating, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Shelley Kais, chair of the Republican Party in Pima County, Ariz., described Trump, with his frequent broadsides against Biden that set the tone in conservative media, as “leading the way doing the compare and contrast.” And in public opinion, there is little daylight between them. service members in a terrorist attack, and his public approval ratings have also suffered amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and legislative impasses in Washington. troops from Afghanistan last summer, including the deaths of 13 U.S. Biden’s public standing took a hit following the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. But Trump is also benefiting from a unique, one-to-one comparison with his Democratic successor. In part, Trump is capitalizing on the same midterm election dynamic that is lifting all Republicans this year, as the out-party historically performs well in a president’s first midterm. One longtime Republican strategist said, “He will torture everyone, and campaigns will have to have a segment of their strategy based on Trump, and how he’s going to react.” “Look, if you’re a Senate candidate or a House candidate, what you don’t want is Trump endorsing against you,” said Bob Heckman, a Republican consultant who has worked on nine presidential campaigns, including Sen. Trump is intervening in Senate and gubernatorial primaries across the midterm map. Liz Cheney, another impeachment backer and a fierce Trump critic, as a member of their party. In Wyoming, state Republican Party leaders voted in November not even to recognize Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the riot at the Capitol, have already announced they will not seek reelection this year. And together with Trump, they are methodically running Trump-critical Republicans from the fold. His allies have expanded their reach throughout the party’s infrastructure in the states. His political committees have amassed more than $100 million. Yet a year later, Trump’s leadership of the party is indisputable. “He is not the leader of any Republican Party I recognize,” Scott Jennings, who worked for President George W. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign, said Trump’s legacy had been “ wiped out.” Republicans who had previously supported Trump were urging him not to run again. Following the riot at the Capitol, Karl Rove, the Republican strategist, said Trump was “ effectively tarnished for all time and incapable of running in 2024.” Rep. “In many ways,” Reed continued, with Republican candidates across the country all clamoring for Trump’s endorsement, “the party may be moving in a more conservative, more populist and more Trumpian direction with him out of office” than if he had been reelected.įor a split-second last year, it seemed that Trump’s grip on the GOP had broken. “You could make the argument that he’s in a stronger position within the Republican Party today than he perhaps ever has been.” “It’s extraordinary,” said Ralph Reed, the Republican strategist and founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition. Join us on Twitter - and bring your questions. On the anniversary of the Capitol attack, our reporters will break down the last year since the deadly insurrection and what to expect next.
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